Bike-run durability
Run Off The Bike Calculator
Estimate the run pace you can actually hold after the bike, then connect that result back into your full race plan.
Fresh standalone pace / km
High run-fade risk
6:03
Projected pace / km
Run split
02:07:38
Penalty
+63s/km
Fresh pace
5:00/km
Distance
21.0975 km
Run durability checks
- This is a durability estimate. Calibrate it with brick runs and race history.
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How to use the result
Use your fresh standalone run pace as the starting point, then let bike intensity, race distance, heat, and nutrition confidence add the fatigue cost. The adjusted pace is the run target to place back into the full race calculator.
- Use standalone 10K pace for Sprint and Olympic planning.
- Use recent half-marathon or long-brick data for 70.3.
- Use conservative long-run or marathon data for Ironman.
Example race read
A runner who can hold 5:00/km fresh might plan 5:20-5:35/km in an Olympic triathlon after a controlled bike, but 5:45-6:15/km in a hot 70.3 if the bike was near the top of the effort range.
Common mistakes
The classic mistake is entering a fresh personal-best run pace and calling it a triathlon run plan. If the bike split requires surging, poor fueling, or high heat cost, the first kilometer out of T2 will expose the fantasy quickly.
When to be conservative
Choose the slower estimate when the bike course is hilly, the run starts in heat, your long bricks fade late, or your nutrition plan is untested. The point is not to predict suffering perfectly; it is to avoid building a plan that needs perfect legs.
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Trust and methodology
How this page should be used
Last updated
July 13, 2026
Maintained by
M Imtinan Farooq
Status
Planning estimate, not a race guarantee
Formula summary
Adjusted pace = fresh pace plus distance, bike effort, heat, and fueling penalties.
Key assumptions
Standalone pace, bike effort, heat load, and fueling confidence are honest.
Limitations
Brick workouts and race history should calibrate the estimate.