Bike-run durability

Run Off The Bike Calculator

Estimate the run pace you can actually hold after the bike, then connect that result back into your full race plan.

km

Fresh standalone pace / km

:

High run-fade risk

6:03

Projected pace / km

Run split

02:07:38

Penalty

+63s/km

Fresh pace

5:00/km

Distance

21.0975 km

Run durability checks

  • This is a durability estimate. Calibrate it with brick runs and race history.

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How to use the result

Use your fresh standalone run pace as the starting point, then let bike intensity, race distance, heat, and nutrition confidence add the fatigue cost. The adjusted pace is the run target to place back into the full race calculator.

  • Use standalone 10K pace for Sprint and Olympic planning.
  • Use recent half-marathon or long-brick data for 70.3.
  • Use conservative long-run or marathon data for Ironman.

Example race read

A runner who can hold 5:00/km fresh might plan 5:20-5:35/km in an Olympic triathlon after a controlled bike, but 5:45-6:15/km in a hot 70.3 if the bike was near the top of the effort range.

Common mistakes

The classic mistake is entering a fresh personal-best run pace and calling it a triathlon run plan. If the bike split requires surging, poor fueling, or high heat cost, the first kilometer out of T2 will expose the fantasy quickly.

When to be conservative

Choose the slower estimate when the bike course is hilly, the run starts in heat, your long bricks fade late, or your nutrition plan is untested. The point is not to predict suffering perfectly; it is to avoid building a plan that needs perfect legs.

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Trust and methodology

How this page should be used

Last updated

July 13, 2026

Maintained by

M Imtinan Farooq

Status

Planning estimate, not a race guarantee

Formula summary

Adjusted pace = fresh pace plus distance, bike effort, heat, and fueling penalties.

Key assumptions

Standalone pace, bike effort, heat load, and fueling confidence are honest.

Limitations

Brick workouts and race history should calibrate the estimate.

Full formulas, source notes, and limitation details are maintained on the methodology page. Use official race guides for event rules, cutoff times, venue policies, and safety instructions.